China will have at least a million deaths due to the current COVID-19 crisis.

It’s simple statistics.

3 min readJan 19, 2023
A picture allegedly showing bodies of COVID-19 dead being burnt on the streets as funeral homes overflow capacity.

There is growing skepticism over China’s official reporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths, with many experts questioning the accuracy of the numbers provided by the Chinese government. Despite officially reporting 30 million cases of COVID-19 a day with no deaths before China stopped reporting, many believe that China’s true numbers are significantly higher.

The Chinese model of COVID-19 control, vaccination, and management has been widely touted as a success by the government and CCP-affiliated media. However, experts warn that the rapid spread of the virus among the poorly vaccinated population in China could lead to the development of new strains and a significant increase in fatalities.

Data from other countries with large Chinese populations, such as Singapore, suggests that even among fully mRNA vaccinated individuals, the death rate averages around 0.023%. This is in contrast to China, where a large unvaccinated population, particularly among the elderly, and low efficacy of Chinese vaccines pose a significant risk.

Based on these factors, it is estimated that at a minimum, 230,000 deaths could occur in China as a result of the current wave of COVID-19. However, given the scale of the outbreak, the strain on the healthcare system, and the large number of unvaccinated individuals, this number could potentially reach one million deaths by the end of the two to three waves predicted this year.

It is important to note that these projections are based on statistical analysis using data from another country, and should be viewed with caution. However, the discrepancy between China’s official numbers and the reality on the ground raises serious concerns about the accuracy of the information provided by the Chinese government. And the statistical analysis can give a very good estimate.

Let me explain. Here below is the COVID-19 death rate in one of the most advanced countries (Singapore) with a large Chinese population. It shows that even among the fully, up-to-date m-RNA vaccinated in Singapore, the death rate averages around 0.023%. This is for a country that has double vaccinated most of its citizens, boosted them twice, and has almost no strain on its world-class health care system.

A Singapore Ministry of Health dashboard showing death rate data

China on the other hand has a large un-vaccinated population, especially among the elderly, and their home grown vaccine efficacy has been proven to be low. So much so that countries like Singapore which allowed the Chinese vaccines to be used fearing China’s wrath decided not to count those who took them, and urged them to complete their boosters using Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

If China is reporting around 30 million COVID-19 cases a day officially, it is fair to assume that 0.023% of them will die in the near future. There’s no way for China to escape this statistics until it is proven they have some new therapy or immunity that can help prevent hospitalizations and death. Which they don’t. So that gives us roughly around 7000 deaths a day.

Given China’s population is around 1.4 billion and it may take about 1 billion to get infected with the virus to attain natural herd immunity, it can be safely assumed 230,000 will die of Covid-19 in the country at a bare minimum. That is if China can actually afford to provide health care to all hospitalized COVID-19 patients with Singapore standards.

Given the fast spreading wave now, the huge health care system crisis, the large number of unvaccinated, the large base of older people, remoteness of Chinese villages, and poor efficacy of Chinese vaccines, this number can easily reach more than 1 million deaths by the end of the two to three waves predicted this year. That is not counting all the dead from other diseases and illnesses who could not get care because the health care system is over stretched now.

China can lie all it wants about deaths, be it for Covid-19 or a conflict with India where 45 of its servicemen died according to Russia, but they can’t cheat statistics.