A little heard news from UK makes me believe it.
The Adani stock volatility situation remains unresolved though it has stabilized. Despite efforts to damage and devalue the company, Adani’s valuation is still higher than it was in 2019, even though some of its companies have suffered losses of more than 50%.
This raises the question of whether the increase in Adani’s value in 2020 was a deliberate effort by some foreign groups. This was a time when the markets in India were attracting the most foreign institutional investment funds, despite the potential for a market crash.
Recently, I came across a piece of news that makes me believe that Adani is still a target. The company is crucial to India's projection of geopolitical power and to Prime Minister Modi's political power domestically.
The news is that former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, has a younger brother who is a director of a little-known capital company that has links to Adani. He recently resigned from his position. Why would he resign? The simple explanation may be that Adani is at risk of bankruptcy due to bad loans and other issues, as indicated by Hindenberg research. But this alone would not warrant resignation from a company.
This suggests that Adani is soon to face sanctions and other more serious issues from western governments. No politician will want to be linked then to Adani. Preparations are likely underway to target the company with allegations that it supported the Myanmar military, or helped the Rajapaksas, or committed crimes against the indigenous people in Australia, or destroyed the environment. A sabotage attack on one its interests leading to an environmental disaster also cannot be ruled out.
These allegations will be used to put political pressure on the governments in the UK, US, and Australia to take action against Adani, such as imposing sanctions and confiscating assets like mines and ports, effectively devaluing the company and putting it on the brink of failure. In the US or China, the government would never allow a nationally important company to fail and would step in to provide support. But in India, due to the existing opposition to Adani and the BJP’s association with it, the Modi government will be unable to do so before the upcoming election year. But in my opinion, they should as political repercussions can be managed but the repercussions of not doing so will be serious.
If Adani were to fail, it could lead to a Indian market crash, cause the rupee to plummet to 100, erase the common man’s invested wealth, and put many major banks like SBI and institutions like LIC in jeopardy. This would be a major blow to Modi and his prospects in the 2024 election. Though this doesn’t necessarily mean the BJP would lose all seats...
...But the mission would be accomplished. A geopolitically important company that supports India’s projection of power would be impacted and brought down. The prospect of another majoritarian Govt at center will become weak. The formation of a weak coalition government in India is what they want and will accomplish, as neither the Congress nor the BJP would have a sufficient number of seats.
India would then be much easier to control by those who hate the current authoritarian Govt, or any strong Govt that acts in India’s interests. They now hate India’s unabashedly self centered geopolitics, growing military aggressiveness, and overall assertiveness. These include Pakistan, China, Islamist and Pak supporting groups in the UK, Khalistani groups, western anti-Hindutva and anti-Modi groups like Soros funded organizations, racists, and western China supporters.
